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Pacquiao vs Cotto: Definitive Breakdown


Saturday November 14th, 2009
by Kevin Blatt - OnThEGRiND BoXiNG New England

When this fight was first announced, it was shortly after Manny Pacquiao had destroyed Ricky Hatton in what was one of the most impressive beat downs of a top fighter in recent history. It was also shortly after Miguel Cotto had squeezed out yet another tough win against another tough opponent, gritting through a bloodied face to once again have his hand raised at the end. It seemed like it was just going to be the next step in the Pacman’s rise to all time greatness. It was what this writer considered a done deal…Cotto would fight strong…Cotto would give his all…but in the end, the inevitable would happen. The star from the Philippines would once again shine brightly.

This of course, was before I looked a little deeper (for those first time readers of my definitive breakdowns prepare to get in depth, it can be a long journey, but it’s worth it)…

-Strengths-
Manny Pacquiao:
Hand Speed – If there is anything that is evident in this fight, that would be the advantage in terms of pure speed from Pac. He is not only one of the fastest P4P fighters in boxing, but that speed comes with explosive power in both hands. This was never on greater display than in his last two big fights. Vs Oscar De La Hoya, a fighter known for his own great hand speed in his prime, Manny was able to continuously beat the bigger man to the punch. Vs Hatton, it was the deciding factor in a fight where the ring entrances lasted longer than the actual action. Fact is, the man they call The Pacman is fast…amazingly so.
Foot Speed – What was outlined above leads perfectly into another factor that weighs heavily in this fight…and that again would be speed. Pac has two of the quickest feet in boxing, which allow him to move adeptly in, attacking with those lightning quick hands, and getting out before his opponent knows what has happened. This has always been something Manny has used not only on offense, but on defense to keep his opponents so off balance that it allows him to set and control the pace of the fight.
Lateral Movement – Watching some older Manny Pacquiao fights, this was not something that you would have considered a “strength,” but fast forwarding to this current incantation of this fighter, it is clearly the area in which he has most improved. Against Oscar, this was the difference in the fight. Every time he had Pac backing up, Manny would adeptly move to the side, away from the corner, making it impossible for Oscar to pin him anywhere and get his offense off. Again, this in my opinion has taken Pacquiao from great, to an all time great.
Miguel Cotto:
Composite Punching – Watching Cotto, whether stalking his more mobile opponents or creating his offense off of his back foot, there are few if any fighters in the sport that can just flat out punch better. The leverage, the accuracy, the power…all come forward in such a thudding fashion that few tend to be able to actually go toe to toe with him, even if they are “bigger punchers”. From a technical standpoint, Miguel Cotto is as good as it gets.
Body Punching – I watched an interview with Freddy Roach, where he lauded at how great Miguel’s left hook to the body is, but then said that he only uses it when he gets his opponent up against the ropes. Well, after watching countless numbers of his past fights, I can attest to that statement being completely false. One of the best weapons in Cotto’s game is his hook to the body stopping his opponent from circling him. Vs Judah, he struggled early with Zab’s speed and movement, until that constant shot to the body slowed the lateral movement to a crawl.
Size – Anyone who watched the Floyd Mayweather – Juan Manuel Marquez fight can attest, as impressive as that win was, the biggest thing that stood out is just how much bigger Floyd was come fight night. His size advantage, both being physically larger and also physically stronger, played more a part in his win than anything else did. After that masterclass, the advantage of Miguel being a true Welterweight is something that should not be ignored. It’s not just a size difference, it’s a strength and power difference, it’s a difference in being accustomed to taking Welterweight punch and Welterweight punishment.
-Weaknesses-
Manny Pacquiao:
Size – Going off of the advantage Cotto has in this department ,and exactly what and why that advantage is, one can’t help but think that this plays against Manny. He has never faced a real, prime WW. One with WW power, WW strength, etc…he now has this in an opponent. How is he going to react to that power, that strength, that punishment, that he has never felt? One of the biggest things that I didn’t like was that Roach admitted to building Manny up past the limit, and steadily working him down. This is normally done for power, but usually is at the expense of stamina…especially when the fighter is not use to the weight he is going to (See Pavlik – Hopkins for a perfect example).
Training Camp – Now, let me preface this by saying, Roach is clearly the better trainer…but watching the 24/7, listening to interviews of all involved and hearing the whispers that have come out of his camp. Whispers of team strife…even whispers that one of his sparring partner, young JMW Shawn Porter knocked him cold during a session…doesn’t bode well for the great standards that Freddy Roach is known for upholding. On top of this, so many things have changed…none so glaring as his cardio road work being done now at sea level as opposed to the normal grueling hill and mountain training that has given Manny that tremendous stamina he has shown throughout his career. Add in all of the outside distractions (the music, the movies, the natural disaster back home), and this is definitely not a trademark Pacquiao/Roach camp.
Miguel Cotto:
Shock – Miguel Cotto has faced fighters who are at least as fast as Manny Pacquiao…Zab Judah, and Paulie Malignaggi. He has faced fighters who have tremendous stamina …Antonio Margarito, and Joshua Clottey. He has also faced fighters who hit like trucks in the past…Ricardo Torres, and Shane Mosely. The one thing he has never really faced is someone who combines all of that. In Manny Pacquiao, he faces one of the three fastest fighters he has seen…one of the three most durable over 12 rounds…one of the three biggest punchers (all arguably of course). How is he going to handle this?
Speed – For all of the things Cotto does well…strength, aggression, timing, accuracy, footwork, etc…he lacks one key component that could and probably will provide a large advantage for his opponent…and that is his own hand and foot speed. The remedy for this has always been great timing, which Miguel has, but as I stated above, Manny Pacquiao is a whole different animal than anything he has faced in the past (and vice versa). This could be huge come fight night.
-Prediction-
I think the fight will start out exactly how most feel it will…with Manny moving well, showing his superior speed and beating Miguel to the punch more often than not. He will take an early lead on the cards as well…and look great doing so. During the first half of the fight, Cotto will have his moments, stalking and pressuring Pac like none have done previously…but mostly falling short on the cards.
As the rounds go on though, I can see this paying dividends. With Manny attempting to circle, I can see Miguel’s body work coming up big (a weapon Marquez was able to use to bother Pac often)…hooking downstairs and starting to stop him in his tracks. This is when that WW strength and pressure will begin to take over. Pacquiao will tire more than we have ever seen him in the past (with the pressure and the change in his workout regimen taking its toll)…and that will be his undoing.
I think by the 11th round, all of this will be too much and much like Cotto wore down against the bigger, stronger, relentless pressure of Margarito…Manny Pacquiao will do the same. I see at least two knockdowns in this round, one of which, he will not rise from.
Miguel Cotto TKO 11

November 14, 2009 - Posted by otg2010 | OtG Boxing News, OtG In-Depth | , , | 3 Comments

3 Comments »

  1. you almost got it right…

    Comment by Mackie | November 15, 2009

  2. Not so fast Kevin. Not so fast …

    Comment by D-Money | November 15, 2009

  3. Great piece, Kevin. It is still hard for me to say. Normally I have most things down, but this is as difficult for me as Margarito-Cotto. I have leaned on a edge win or possibly a shellshock win for Pacman, but if Cotto can keep up, start grinding down Pacquiao. This could end up being too much for the smaller guy. But Cotto really needs to work the best from his magic bag, because he is fighting two guys; Pacman and Roach.

    Comment by Danepugilist | November 14, 2009


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