OnThEGRiND BoXiNG

Sunday October 4th, 2009
by K.M. Stansen - OnThEGRiND BoXiNG Sr. Features Writer

The super six tournament is closing in, and now that October has arrived it’s time to pull out our best analyst hats and get excited.

Some of the matches may seem a bit unfair because of experience differences between the combatants, but I believe at 20 to 25 fights or so, the time is ripe for the most promising prospective contenders to step up or fail. In the opening set of fights we will be given the pleasure of viewing Arthur Abraham vs. Jermain Taylor, happening in Germany, and Carl Froch vs. Andre Dirrell. Both matches positively ensure that at least something interesting will happen within their courses of action, and while the first is fairly and evenly matched, the second shows a notable experience gap though, and is well up for grabs.

Let’s analyze the evidence that we have available on the Taylor vs Abraham fight, and come to a verdict as to who should be favored to win:

Jermain Taylor vs. Arthur Abraham -
1. Ages go as 31 for Taylor and 29 for Abraham.

For all intents and purposes, two years is a negligent age difference, and the fighters’ conditions will be based on how they have taken care of themselves in their personal lives. It may be prudent to also apply ‘ring wear’ to a comparison of each fighter’s possible condition that they will bring into the ring.

2. Stylistically Abraham has shown vulnerability to boxers even though he is undefeated. He struggled greatly with Khoren Gevor and had his lapses with Elvin Ayala.

Taylor has greater boxing skills than both of the former Abraham opponents and has displayed this in the Hopkins matches, Pavlik rematch and the Carl Froch fight.

Abraham’s struggles with crafty, range minded boxers, which tends to happen because of his low output style and a comfort zone that lays within the counter punching territory an opponent in this sweet science. The only problem is that his counter punching skills aren’t on point with quicker fighters that produce greater timing than he does, and he’s forced to rely on his impressive punching power, so this leads me to believe that Taylor will have the stylistic edge here by far.

3. Intangibles are where I feel Taylor will be falling short. He has faded one way or another in all of his big fights and prior to fighting Kelly Pavlik, his opponents just didn’t have the tenacity or pop to capitalize on this serious flaw. Why this is not a cut and dry ‘Abraham will produce the same results’ type of outlook from me is based upon Abraham’s low punch output. I do feel he’s a stronger puncher than either Froch or Pavlik, both of whom gained knockout victories over Taylor solely due to the questionable stamina. Abraham as well has a proven iron chin, seemingly much greater than that of Carl Froch, whom Taylor was able to hurt repeatedly. This is noted because of the fact that Taylor is not a notable power puncher at all, but Abraham may be one the hardest punchers in the game if we’re being objective. Taylor’s greatest intangible advantage over Abraham is his highly impressive speed.

4. Experience is perhaps a small advantage for Jermain Taylor due to the overall caliber of fighters he has fought, though with Abraham having fought at the World Level for years now, it’s perhaps negligent to mention because the former as well has several losses and a blue print has been established on how to take him out, if you will.

5. Condition is another area where Taylor may be worse for wear than Abraham. Both fighters have been apart of grueling matches(the key to cutting a career short), but Taylor has been apart of more and has taken a lot of punishment in his career. We can not ignore this factor, but every fighter is different, some can take insurmountable beatings and stay in top form, and some falter after one serious war.

The Verdict -

I’m feeling deep down that Jermain Taylor will put in a better performance than many think he is capable of doing at this point, shown by the fact that Abraham seems to be the clear betting favorite. I as well note that a repeat of Froch/Taylor is staring at us at eye level given the track record of both fighters against their respective world level opposition.

The fight will either end up as a wide Taylor Decision or a mid to late Abraham knockout. I’m personally leaning slightly towards a late Abraham knockout, where he is even more so behind on the cards than Carl Froch was due to his lesser showings against skilled range based fighters.

Abraham late T/KO - 70%
Taylor decision - 50%
Taylor late T/KO - 15%
Abraham decision - 30%
Abraham early T/KO - 10%
Taylor early T/KO - 0%

Regards,
KM Stansen