OnThEGRiND BoXiNG

March 20th 2009

Meaningful heavyweight fights have been a rarity on ESPN for quite some time, but this Saturday the first of two important match ups will take place on the channel and will hopefully not disappoint. WBC titlist Vitali Klitschko is fighting mandatory Juan Carlos Gomez in what is generally considered a mismatch since most people believe Vitali is back in elite form and Gomez will get run over by the larger, tougher man. I’m expecting Klitschko to win also, but I would be surprised if this fight turns out one sided like Klitschko’s fight against Peter last year, and think Gomez can give him trouble with his quick counters.

This bout could be seen as Vitali’s real comeback fight since the one against Peter was more like a sparring session. Peter showed up in horrible condition with no game plan and basically followed Vitali around the ring for 8 rounds, getting beat up before finally quitting. People were so impressed with Klitschko’s dominant win that they seemed to ignore the fact that he was significantly slower than ever. He looked sloppy at times on his feet while moving away from Peter’s predictable offense, and more robotic than ever while flinging punches back at him.

Gomez, who has struggled with getting into shape for small fights, should without a doubt be at 100% for this one. Lack of motivation and focus was the main reason for the only loss in his career against Yanqui Diaz, when he was stopped in the first round. Because of that result, most people believe that Gomez has no chin, but in his last fight he was able to take serious shots from one of the biggest punchers around, Vladimir Virchis without even getting stunned. I doubt Klitschko’s one punch power is bigger than Virchis’ and although he’s bound to land a lot more punches on Gomez than Virchis did, it’s not easy to see Vitali stopping Gomez without breaking him down first. And breaking Gomez down will not be easy either.

The fight is likely to start off as a chess match with both men measuring, and Gomez taking small steps back trying to lead Vitali in to counter him with his straight left. Klitschko has always been vulnerable to the straight left from southpaws because he fights with his hands down, leaning straight back to avoid the punch. With his declining reflexes and Gomez’s fast, accurate hands, Vitali may have some problems and drop a round or two early, but by the middle rounds I see Klitschko having success cutting off the ring and imposing his size to slowly break down his much smaller opponent. I think Gomez lacks many of the things needed to keep Klitschko off of him for long, and will not be able to consistently outbox him because of it. Offensively, he doesn’t have the power to get much respect from Vitali, and when they trade punches on the inside…Vitali will be doing more damage with his partial-connects, than Gomez will with his cleaner and quicker pitter patter work. Defensively, Gomez lacks the head movement and defensive guard necessary to keep Vitali missing and because of Klitschko’s huge size advantage, getting in position to tee off on Gomez should not be too difficult.

Stamina is somewhat of a concern for Klitschko, especially if he’s more past it than people think and Gomez will be more active than he has ever been at HW on Saturday, both of which are real possibilities. I however, would be surprised if Gomez doesn’t slow down by the mid-late rounds when Vitali should start to have increasing success in backing Gomez up against the ropes, and teeing off on him with power shots. There’s a good chance that around this time Klitschko lands something big on Gomez and hurts him badly, stopping him soon after…but if Gomez is as focused and motivated as he seems to be for this fight, who knows just how much it’ll take for Vitali to take him out, or even break him down ? To me, this is the biggest question of the fight. Will Gomez be able to show the type of toughness, skill, and activity needed to outbox a Vitali Klitschko who is a level down from what he was in his prime, over 12 rounds ? I believe the answer is no, but I also think Gomez will surprise a lot of people with how competitive and tough he will be before Klitschko comes on in the middle rounds, and most likely stops him late.