OnThEGRiND BOXiNG

Thursday June 11th, 2009

Since Cotto’s fight with Margarito, boxing fans have questioned whether he is the same fighter now that he was before suffering his first defeat. Although Clottey has proven to be a force at welterweight, many question if he’s good enough to beat a fighter of Cotto’s caliber. This Saturday night, we will finally get some answers.

How will Cotto deal with taking Clottey’s punches? There are many uncertainties in this intriguing matchup and this is perhaps the most important one to consider. If he takes Clottey’s biggest shots well, he should be able to get his offensive work done properly and come away with a win. But if he gets stunned and shaken around the ring too often, he’ll be forced to fight in survival mode and lose.

Cotto’s chin is a bit of a mystery. He has been wobbled by fighters with average power, but at the same time he has taken bombs from Mosley without budging. All we know is that Cotto could be hurt and against a quick, sneaky puncher like Clottey, there’s a serious chance he will be hurt again. However, overall I think Cotto should handle Clottey’s shots well. Clottey rarely puts a lot of power into his punches and doesn’t have much power to begin with. Also, when he does have a fighter hurt, he is a terrible finisher. I’m expecting Cotto to get stunned by some counters during parts of the fight, but I would be surprised if Clottey makes Cotto respect his power so much that Cotto has to completely change his tactics. As for Cotto’s chances of hurting the ultra-durable Clottey with single shots, it’s not likely to say the least.

How will their styles match up? Cotto is a counterpunching boxer-swarmer who fights well from any range and likes to move around the ring. Clottey fights out of a high guard and is a mostly stationary, very economical boxer who prefers fighters coming to him, but can switch into a pressure style when he needs to. Cotto is the more effective outside boxer, mainly because of his better movement and more accurate, stronger jab. Clottey has a very good jab himself, but he is not as comfortable fighting from the outside, especially when he is forced to press. Against Judah, Clottey had to push his way inside to find success and even against lower level fighters he had trouble landing, often lunging in and missing wide when they showed decent movement. Also, when Clottey fights coming forward, he tends to wait too long for openings and lets opponents win rounds by outworking him as he keeps his guard up and doesn’t throw enough punches. Cotto should have his own share of problems from the outside since it will be difficult for him to get clean shots through Clottey’s guard, but when they fight from a long range, I think Cotto will hold an edge because of being more active and comfortable there.

There’s no doubt that Clottey is a lot more effective when his opponents pressure him or stay inside. He’s not the type of counterpuncher who times fighters coming in often or creates opportunities with movement. He prefers to let opponents come in and start punching first, then when he sees openings he fires back with quick combos. Offensively, Cotto is a monster inside and picks his punches as well as anybody, but his defense is leaky and he’s at his most vulnerable state when he finishes firing, but continues to stay inside (also the state where Clottey is most effective). I think Clottey’s strategy will be to come forward with his guard up and force Cotto to throw punches, then answer back with his own. The hope there is that even if Cotto throws more, Clottey will block most of the shots and land the cleaner, more effective blows. But Cotto might surprise Clottey with how much he does land.

Clottey’s defense has worked very well against past opponents, but Clottey has never faced someone with the elite level offense of Cotto, who will be creating openings with precise, unpredictable combos. If Cotto feels comfortable enough inside to take a few punches to land some of his own, he’ll also be able to put in significant work on Clottey’s body. Clottey is extremely durable, but with his high guard he leaves his body open and his stamina is poor for a top level fighter. If Cotto’s body punching slows him down, he’ll be reduced to a fighter who won’t be able to do enough to win. Clottey’s stamina issues are also important to note because unlike fighters in the past like Mosley, Margarito, and Ndou who were able to force Cotto to fight at an uncomfortably high pace, Clottey is simply not active enough to overwhelm him with output. Unless he’s able to hurt Cotto, Clottey will have to hope that he consistently lands more clean punches without getting seriously outworked in close rounds, something that’ll be difficult to accomplish.

So how will this fight play out? I believe that Clottey will start off more aggressive than usual and try to be very physical with Cotto on the inside. Cotto will look to box in the beginning, going inside to throw a combo and quickly moving out of range. He’s bound to get caught by Clottey’s counters though and depending on how much they affect him, Cotto will either stay on the inside and apply more pressure or end up using a lot of movement and attacking in short spurts. Either way, Cotto has a natural tendency to fire back after he gets caught instead of going on the defensive, so even when he’s in boxing mode, there should be plenty moments of war too. I see Cotto having decent success avoiding Clottey’s punches on the inside with his upper body movement, but I can’t see Cotto going through rounds without taking a fair number of flush shots (especially uppercuts, which Cotto has always been vulnerable to and doesn’t see coming well). However, Clottey will have to open up a lot if he wants to beat Cotto convincingly and I think many people are underestimating what kind of damage Cotto is capable of delivering against someone standing in front of him, even in Clottey’s defensive shell. When Cotto has success on the inside, I also see Clottey resorting to clinching. Being the bigger, stronger man will help Clottey when they’re tied up, but I think the size disadvantage for Cotto would only be a serious concern if Clottey had a more aggressive style or a higher punch output.

There are many other things to consider in this matchup and I could go on for hours, but going back to my original point, I think the outcome of this fight will be decided by how well Cotto reacts to taking Clottey’s shots. I feel Cotto will be able to handle them well enough to win, so I’m going with him by clear decision in a highly competitive bout. Cotto will look troubled at times, but I see him taking more rounds by being the more multidimensional, active fighter and forcing Clottey to fight the way he wants him to.